Story by Eugene Nyarko Jnr. l UG, Accra l Tuesday, October 20, 2026 —
Ghana’s $10 billion merchandise trade surplus in 2025 was driven largely by gold exports, exposing the economy’s vulnerability to international commodity price fluctuations and underscoring the urgent need to diversify exports, the Director of the Institute of Statistical, Social and Economic Research (ISSER), Professor Robert Darko Osei, has warned.
He said although Ghana recorded significant macroeconomic improvements in 2025, sustaining the gains would depend on the country’s ability to expand manufacturing, increase domestic value addition and translate monetary stability into affordable credit for businesses.
Prof. Osei made the remarks at the launch of the 2025 State of the Ghanaian Economy Report (SGER), where he cautioned against excessive reliance on gold exports to sustain the country’s external sector performance.
“The position that we have found ourselves in is being driven by a sector that we do not have significant control over,” he said, warning that favourable international gold prices could not be expected to persist indefinitely.
He said Ghana must use the current period of economic stability to strengthen productive sectors and build adequate external reserves to cushion the economy against future shocks.
Gold dependence threatens sustainability
Prof. Osei said the merchandise trade surplus recorded in 2025 was largely attributable to gold exports, while the recovery in cocoa exports contributed relatively little to the improvement.
He noted that the share of manufactured goods in Ghana’s total exports fell to below six per cent in 2025 compared with 2024, highlighting the limited contribution of manufactured products to the country’s export earnings.
He called for deliberate measures to improve the volume and competitiveness of manufactured exports, stressing that greater domestic processing of natural resources was essential to economic diversification.
According to him, Ghana must strengthen its productive capacity and reduce its dependence on raw commodity exports to build a more resilient economy.
He also urged the government to build adequate external reserves while favourable conditions supported gold earnings, warning that the current performance could be undermined by changes in international commodity prices.
High borrowing costs constrain businesses
Despite improvements in macroeconomic stability, Prof. Osei identified the high cost of borrowing as a major constraint on private-sector growth and investment.
He said inflation declined from more than 23 per cent in 2024 to 5.4 per cent in 2025, while the cedi recorded significant appreciation during the year.
Average bank lending rates also fell from more than 30 per cent in 2024 to about 20 per cent in 2025, reflecting improvements in monetary conditions.
However, he said borrowing costs remained too high to adequately support business competitiveness, expansion and investment.
“If credit is a binding constraint for private businesses in Ghana, clearly we cannot be competitive,” he said.
Prof. Osei stressed that the next major challenge was to translate macroeconomic stability into accessible financing for productive investments, particularly within the private sector.
He said affordable credit was essential for businesses seeking to expand production, create jobs and compete effectively in domestic and international markets.
Non-performing loans remain a concern
Prof. Osei also identified non-performing loans as a continuing concern for the banking sector, despite improvements in economic conditions in 2025.
He explained that the risk of loan defaults compelled banks to factor potential losses into their lending rates, making further reductions in borrowing costs difficult.
Using an illustration of a 20 per cent non-performing loan rate, he said a bank lending GH¢100 could face the prospect of failing to recover about GH¢20.
He called for sustained efforts to address the structural factors contributing to loan defaults and strengthen the banking sector’s capacity to finance productive economic activities.
According to him, reducing lending risks would be important in lowering borrowing costs and improving access to finance for businesses.
ISSER calls for fiscal discipline
On fiscal policy, the ISSER director called for stronger domestic revenue mobilisation, continued fiscal discipline and protection of public investment.
He urged the government to institutionalise measures that had helped restore fiscal stability to ensure that the gains were sustained over the long term.
Prof. Osei said Ghana needed to preserve its macroeconomic improvements while strengthening domestic production, expanding manufactured exports and improving access to credit.
He said these measures would help make the country’s economic recovery more resilient and inclusive.
Mineral wealth must deliver development
The Head of the Economics Division at ISSER, Professor Fred Dzanku, said higher mining revenues had not consistently translated into increased public investment or improved social services.
He called for improvements in mineral valuation, production monitoring, tax compliance and revenue administration, alongside greater transparency and accountability in the use of mineral revenues.
Prof. Dzanku said Ghana’s economic recovery had continued into 2026, although the benefits remained uneven across sectors.
While first-half economic growth was reported at about 6.1 per cent, he said the expansion was concentrated in fewer sectors than in the previous year.
He also warned that the merchandise trade surplus remained heavily dependent on gold receipts, while other exports were showing signs of deterioration.
The situation, he said, reinforced the need for Ghana to diversify its export base and strengthen other productive sectors to reduce its vulnerability to external shocks.
Prof. Dzanku’s remarks highlighted the importance of ensuring that revenues generated from the country’s mineral resources translated into tangible improvements in infrastructure, public services and livelihoods.
NIB urges investment in jobs and production
The Deputy Managing Director in charge of Business and Operations at the National Investment Bank (NIB), Ms Belinda Boamah, urged the government to consolidate its macroeconomic gains and translate them into productive investment, competitive enterprises and decent jobs, particularly for young people.
In her closing remarks as chairperson of the event, she said Ghana must ensure that its mineral wealth generated lasting development through transparent revenue management, timely transfers to mining communities and savings during periods of favourable economic conditions.
She also called for decisive action against illegal mining, stressing the need to protect the country’s natural resources while ensuring that mineral revenues contributed meaningfully to national development.
Ms Boamah urged financial institutions to channel the benefits of economic stability into affordable, long-term financing for businesses operating in agriculture, manufacturing and value addition.
She said expanding access to finance would enable enterprises to increase production, improve competitiveness and create employment opportunities.
Ms Boamah further urged policymakers, development partners, the private sector, academia, civil society and the media to use the State of the Ghanaian Economy Report as an evidence-based tool for decision-making and accountability.
She added that the National Investment Bank would continue to use research of this nature to guide its lending decisions and support productive investments.
The report’s findings underline the need for Ghana to move beyond headline macroeconomic improvements towards a more diversified, productive and employment-generating economy, with stronger manufacturing, affordable business financing and more effective management of natural resource revenues.
Go deeper on Ghana’s economic risks
- Show what export diversification would require
